Anti-GMO activism has cost Kenya millions of dollars in lost production by denying farmers access to improved seeds for many years.
Genetically modified crops in Kenya have been subject to a long campaign of misinformation and fear-mongering. Leading politicians have falsely claimed that eating them would make women grow beards, and activist non-State agencies have taken out numerous court cases to stop farmers from being able to use them.
The reality is that GM crops have traits that can benefit both farmers and citizens. Farmers growing insect-resistant cotton and maize, or blight-resistant potatoes, can get better yields using less agrochemicals, saving money and protecting health. Drought-tolerance traits can improve maize harvests in dry years, saving the country money from imports and helping protect food security at the household level.
This report attempts to quantify the damage done by anti-GMO activism and fear-mongering in Kenya, by calculating the economic costs of the many years of delay to three GM crops: maize, cotton, and potato. These costs are to the whole country, to farmers and citizens, and even to the climate because of increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Key finding
We estimate that altogether, five years of delay in the approval of Bt cotton, Bt maize, and late blight disease-resistant potato may have cost Kenyan farmers and consumers 157 million dollars.
Maize:
- Kenya could have started growing maize in 2019, as the seeds were ready by then and had completed field trials. However, anti-GMO legal cases mean that Bt maize is still blocked in 2024.
- This five years of delay has already cost farmers and consumers 67 million dollars.
- With GM Bt maize, in 2024 Kenya could have produced 194,000 tons of additional maize harvest.
- This equals 25 percent of maize imports received in 2022, and 14 times higher than maize food transfer from the World Food Programme to Kenya in 2023.
Bt cotton
Five years of delay in Bt cotton release cost Kenya 1.2 million dollars.
- Bt cotton could have been released in 2015 rather than 2020. Had this been the case, the country could have produced 650 tons more cotton, replacing 12 percent of imports.
- Bt cotton could have helped revitalize the whole cotton sector, with knock-on benefits for jobs and the wider economy.
Blight-resistant potato
- A five-year delay in the release of potato varieties with resistance genes would cost Kenyan farmers and consumers 89 million dollars.
- If the block is lifted, the benefits over 30 years of GM potato would accrue to 247 million dollars, nearly a quarter of a billion dollars in value to the country.
- Smallholder potato production is important for subsistence farmers, so better harvests improve food and nutrition security.
Yield increases in Bt maize and cotton help spare land from deforestation elsewhere, reducing carbon emissions through land-saving. Over five years this is estimated to be between 1.15 to 3.6 million tons of CO2e. This is the equivalent of taking 780,000 cars off the road, an important proportion of Kenya’s climate impact.
Call to action
The Kenyan government must stand up to misinformation and promote the use of GM seeds produced by Kenya-based scientists for the benefit of the country’s farmers. This can reduce chemical use, lower carbon emissions, and improve nutrition security. It will benefit the country over many years by hundreds of millions of dollars. Kenya cannot afford more years of delay from anti-GMO fear-mongering.
Methodology and sources:
For the full report, including data sources, methodology, calculations, references, and full tables of figures for all scenarios, see Genetically Modified Crops in Kenya: The Cost of Delay, released in November 2024 by the Breakthrough Institute, Alliance for Science, AATF, OFAB, ISAAA, and CIP. _______________________________________________________________________________________________
Mark Lynas is a climate change author and campaigner who has co-authored peer-reviewed papers on vaccines, climate, and GMOs focusing on scientific consensus and misinformation.